姚安Ms6.0地震典型重力前兆孕震模型量化研究

基于闭锁剪力模式与地震位错理论，提出构造“等效位错”来描述地震的震前“闭锁剪力”，并建立震前地表重力变化与“等效位错”之间的定量化模型。考虑到粗差干扰，采用稳健-贝叶斯最小二乘方法对姚安M_S6.0地震的“等效位错”进行反演。结果表明，其孕震源为高倾角走滑型，“孕震矩”与USGS给出的矩震级接近，证明该方法可依据震前重力四象限图像对未来震源特性和孕震强度进行预测。

Quantitative Research on the Seismic Model of Typical Gravity Precursors in Yao’an MS6.0 Earthquake

Based on the lock in the shearing force model and seismic dislocation theory, we describe the lock in shearing force of the earthquake as an equivalent dislocation. We build the mathematical relationship between lock in shearing force and the surface gravity. Considering the rough-difference interference, we use robust-Bayesian least squares inversion to obtain the parameters of equivalent dislocation. The inversion results show that the seismogenic type is high dip angle strike-slip, and that the seismogenic energy is close to the Yao’an earthquake moment magnitude provided by USGS. It proves that this method can be applied to predict the future focus characteristics and seismogenic magnitude with the four-quadrant gravity image before an earthquake.