中国城城流动人口的空间分布、流动规律及其形成机制

在人口城城流动日益成为中国人口流动的重要形式背景下,基于人口普查数据和流动人口动态监测数据,分别探讨城城流动人口空间流动的结果、过程和成因,也就是探讨城城流动人口的空间分布、流动轨迹及形成机制。研究表明：城城流动人口倾向于向发达地区和大城市流动,同时在流动过程中会考虑空间的邻近;地区间经济发展水平、就业机会以及高水平教育医疗设施的差距是诱发城城人口流动的内在动力,而在实际的流动过程中会综合考虑由于空间摩擦而产生的金钱成本、心理压力等障碍;同时,已有城城流动人口存量会通过减少适应流入地的成本、提供相应的生活和就业信息等方式降低流动成本,刺激城城流动人口按照已有路径流动。借鉴西方发达国家人口流动的阶段划分,认为中国人口流动仍然处于从小城镇进入大城市的阶段。在这一时间节点上,依据人口流动的自然规律,鼓励人口向大城市流动,并通过发展副中心和卫星城等形式疏散中心区功能,推动城市郊区化发展才符合城市发展的自然逻辑。

Spatial distribution,flowing rules and forming mechanism of inter-cities floating population in China

The population flow between cities not only reflects the choice of the urban population who voted with their feet based on different development levels of urban economy, society, and public services, but also exerts a direct bearing on the success of rational and orderly movement of population, coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and the new-type urbanization strategies. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the spatial flowing laws and driving mechanism of urban-to-urban population flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of population and the new-type urbanization strategy. In the context of the increasing amounts of urban-to-urban floating population in China, this paper discusses the results, processes, and causes of the spatial mobility of floating population in urban areas based on data of population census and dynamic monitoring of floating population. In addition, it studies the spatial distribution, flow trajectory and forming mechanism of urban-to-urban floating population. This paper uses Arcgis to visualize the spatial distribution and main flow trajectories of inter-cities floating population, then uses regression equations to analyze the main factors driving population movement between cities. The results of this paper indicate that the urban-to-urban floating population tends to flow to developed regions and metropolises, during the process of which the proximity of destination is considered; gaps among regions in terms of economic development, employment opportunities, and high levels of education and medical facilities are the internal impetus to the flow of urban-to-urban floating population, while comprehensive consideration will be given to obstacles such as money costs and psychological pressure generated by space friction; at the same time, the existing urban-to-urban floating population will reduce the flow costs, and stimulate the flow of urban-to-urban floating population according to existing routes by reducing the cost of inflows, and providing living and employment information. According to the stage division of population flow in the developed countries, it is discovered that the population movement in China is still transforming from the stage where people move from small cities and towns to metropolises. At this time point, the government should encourage the flow of population to large cities according to the natural law of population movement, decentralize the functions of the central area through the development of sub-centers and satellite cities, and promote the development of urban suburbanization, which are in line with the natural logic of urban development.