双碳目标的挑战与电力结构调整趋势展望

  目的  “碳中和·碳达峰”是促进中国能源经济转型，构建人类命运共同体的重要战略决策。中国是能源消费大国，双碳目标下全社会面临着巨大的挑战，实现双碳目标需要正确理论方法的指导和科学的部署。  方法  为此，文章基于中国能源发展形势，剖析了双碳目标的本质，从宏观层面给出了双碳目标的根本出路，并从能源供给侧的角度对双碳目标下零碳能源发电负荷构成和负荷需求指标等电力负荷发展趋势进行了预测，提出了“等效电力能源替代”新概念。  结果  基于核能、水能、风能、太阳能等资源禀赋给出了双碳目标下电力结构调整的方案，分析了电力结构调整带来的系统运行特性问题，提供了解决问题的措施。  结论  双碳目标或将掀起新一代能源革命和全面的工业革命，水、风、光、核四种主要的零碳能源资源能够满足中国的社会经济持续发展需求，新能源将迎来高速发展时代。文章从多方面论述了未来能源的发展趋势，给出了电力结构调整的建设性意见，对双碳目标的实现具有重要的理论指导意义。

Challenges and Prospects for the Trends of Power Structure Adjustment Under the Goal of Carbon Peak and Neutrality

  Introduction  "Carbon peak and neutrality" is an important strategic decision to promote the transformation of China's energy economy and build a community of shared future for mankind. China is a big energy consuming country and the whole society is facing huge challenges under the "carbon peak and neutrality" goal. The realization of the goal requires the guidance of correct theoretical methods and scientific deployment.  Method  For this reason， based on China's energy development situation， the essence of the "carbon peak and neutrality" goal was analyzed， the fundamental way to achieve the goal was given from a macro level， the development trends of power load such as zero-carbon energy power generation load composition and load demand indicators under the "carbon peak and neutrality" were predicted from the perspective of the energy supply side， and a new concept of "equivalent electric energy substitution" was proposed in this article.  Result  Based on the resource endowments of nuclear energy， hydropower， wind energy， solar energy and other resources， the power structure adjustment scheme under the "carbon peak and neutrality" goal was given， and the system operation characteristics problems caused by the power structure adjustment were analyzed， and measures to solve the problems were provided.  Conclusion  The "carbon peak and neutrality" goal may set off a new generation of energy revolution and a comprehensive industrial revolution. The four main zero-carbon energy resources of water， wind， light， and nuclear can meet the needs of China's sustainable social and economic development， and new energy will usher in an era of rapid development. This article discusses the development trend of future energy from many aspects， and gives constructive opinions on the adjustment of power structure， which has important theoretical guiding significance for the realization of the "carbon peak and neutrality" goal.