新疆2001-2010年农业气候干旱脆弱性分析

选取新疆维吾尔自治区14个地（州）为研究对象，从农业气候干旱的敏感性和恢复力2个角度选取10个指标，对该区2001-2010年的农业气候干旱脆弱性进行评价。通过计算新疆各地（州）农业气候干旱脆弱度并绘制新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性区划图，分析该区农业气候干旱脆弱性的年际变化和地域分布特点及规律，初步探讨了其成因，提出缓解新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性的科学对策。结果表明：新疆各地区农业气候干旱脆弱度在时间尺度存在差异性变化，并存在显著地域性差异，总体呈现出 “东高西低，南高北低”的分布状况，主要原因不仅有地形、水文和气候等自然环境因素的差异，还包括经济产业结构、科学技术研究、灌溉设施、全民意识和政策管理等社会经济因素，可以通过采用先进技术和高效管理措施、根据气候采取种植结构格局和方式、合理开采高效利用水资源、增强全民生态保护意识等措施，缓解干旱影响、降低区域干旱脆弱性。

Vulnerability to Drought on Agriculture in Xinjiang during 2001-2010

The drought vulnerability on agriculture was evaluated for fourteen regions of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with climate data collected in 2001-2010 and 10 indicators regarding sensitivity and resilience of agricultural climate drought in the region by drawing the drought vulnerability zoning map and analyzing the inter-annual changes. The geographical distribution, causes, proposal for mitigating the fragility of the Drought in this areas were also discussed. The results showed that: the drought vulnerability in Xinjiang differed significantly between regions during 2001-2010, indicating a "high in East and South, and low in West and North" trend. It might be mainly due to the topographical features, hydrology and climate and other factors such as economic industrial structure, science and technology level, irrigation facilities, public consciousness and policy management. To mitigate the effects of drought and reduce the vulnerability of the regional drought, countermeasures such as taking reasonable pattern of planting structure, adopting advanced technology and efficient management according to the local climate, rational water resource utilization, rasing public participation and their universal and environmental awareness should be enhanced.