ENSO对黑龙江省森林火灾的影响

利用黑龙江省1980—1999年森林火灾数据,以及NINO3.4指数和SOI指数,分别对其进行谱分析,得出其波动周期分别为:火灾次数的周期为10.00年;火灾面积的周期为6.67年;La Nin~a和El Nin~o在这20年中的基本周期为5.00年。进而对其进行相关性分析,结果表明,La Nin~a和El Ni~no与森林火灾面积和次数的相关性极为显著,NI-NO3.4指数与森林火灾年发生面积与次数呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.523 1和-0.659 4,SOI指数与森林火灾年发生次数与面积呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.525 4和0.536 3。La Ni~na对森林火灾的影响较El Nin~o的影响要小。由于受遥相关二次效应的影响,森林火灾的发生相对于El Nin~o事件的高峰有一定的滞后。在ENSO暖事件间期,通常火灾面积、次数会异常增高。

Influences of ENSO Events on Forest Fires in Heilongjiang Province

The data of forest fires from 1980 to 1999 in Heilongjiang Province, NINO3.4 index and Southern Oscillation Index were analyzed by spectral analysis and correlation method, and the spectral periodicities were got individually. The periodicities of fire number and fire area were 10.00 years and 6.67 years respectively. The periodicities of both El Ni o and La Ni a were 5.00 years in these 20 years. The correlations between fire number or area and La Ni a or El Ni o were very significant. The fire area and fire number were negatively correlated with El Ni o, and the correlation coefficients were -0.523 1 and -0.659 4 respectively. The fire number and fire area were positively correlated with La Ni a, and the correlation coefficients were 0.525 4 and 0.536 3 respectively. The influence of La Ni a was less than that of El Ni o. The fire area and fire number increased abnormally after warm ENSO events year.