基于故障树的水下生产系统可靠性分配

水下生产系统作为深水油气资源开发的主流模式,设备安全可靠运行是保证资源开发和保护生态环境的关键因素。以乐东22-1南块气田为例,进行基于故障树的水下生产系统可靠性分配。首先将水下生产系统故障树模型分为4层,自上而下分别为顶事件、初级中间事件、次级中间事件和三级中间事件。然后采用复合分配法,对故障树顶事件采用基于概率重要度的方法进行可靠性分配,对初级中间事件利用可靠性再分配法进行可靠性分配,最后采取层次分析法对故障率发生改变的次级中间事件进行可靠性分配,最终将系统可靠性指标依次分配到子系统及零部件。分配结果与工程实际相符,并且可以针对失效率较高的薄弱环节,优化水下生产系统可靠性设计。

Reliability Assignment of Subsea Production System Based on the Fault Tree

Subsea production system is the mainstream mode of deepwater oil and gas resources development.The safe and reliable operation of equipment is the key factor to ensure resource development and protect the ecological environment.The reliability distribution of the subsea production system based on the fault tree was carried out by taking the Le Dong 22-1 south gas field as an example.The subsea production system fault tree model was divided into four layers,including top event,primary intermediate event,secondary intermediate event,and tertiary intermediate event.The complex distribution method was adopted,the probability of the top event of the fault tree based on the importance of reliability allocation method,the primary intermediate events by using reliability distribution method for reliability allocation again,finally the analytic hierarchy process was adopted to change failure rate distribution,the reliability of the secondary intermediate events have been eventually system reliability index allocation to subsystem and components in turn.The distribution results are consistent with the engineering practice,and the reliability design of the subsea production system can be optimized for the weak links with a high failure rate.