基于灰箱理论的配电房温度变化预测模型研究

配电房环境封闭、透风性差、温度较高,为解决因温度高而影响电力设备安全运行的问题,需要研究配电房温度变化的预测模型,以便进行温度调控。提出基于灰箱理论研究的配电房温度变化的预测模型,为实现配电房温度的自动化控制提供了模型基础。首先介绍了配电房的基本结构,然后根据传热学、动力学等物理知识及热电相似理论得到配电房的热电模型;接下来基于灰箱法利用相关数据的时间序列估计该模型中未知的物理参数,并通过其自相关矩阵验证模型的合理性;最后,将模型的一步和六步预测温度值和实际温度值进行对比分析,结果表明该模型能够较好地描述配电房的热动力学特性,与配电房的实际温度变化相一致。

Temperature change prediction model of power distribution room based on grey box theory

In order to cope with the closed environment of the power distribution room, the poor air permeability, the high temperature and solve the problem that the high temperature affects the safe operation of the power equipment, it is necessary to study the prediction model of the temperature change of the power distribution room for temperature regulation and control.The prediction model for temperature variation of power distribution rooms based on grey box theory is proposed, which provides a model basis for automatic control of power distribution room temperature.Firstly, the basic structure of the power distribution room is introduced.Then the thermoelectric model of the power distribution room is obtained according to the physics knowledge of heat transfer, dynamics and thermoelectric similarity theory.Next, using the time series of relevant data, the unknown physical parameters in the model is estimated based on the gray box method.Meanwhile, the rationality of the model is verified through their auto-correlation matrix.Finally, the one-step and six-step predicted temperature values of the model are compared with actual temperature values.The results not only show that the model can better describe the thermodynamic characteristics of power distribution room, also indicate that it is consistent with the actual temperature changes in the distribution room.