广西春季低温阴雨预测概念模型

分析广西春季低温阴雨周期性及其QBO特征,太阳黑子相对数、厄尔尼诺事件与广西春季低温阴雨的关系,以及广西春季低温阴雨前期500hPa环流的演变特征,得出:(1)广西低温阴雨天气具有准2a周期.(2)在太阳黑子暴发年,破坏了低温阴雨的准2a周期振荡,全区低温阴雨结束期为偏早趋势;在太阳黑子相对数低值年,广西低温阴雨天气的变化存在22a左右的周期.(3)受东传型厄尔尼诺事件的影响,全区大部低温阴雨结束期偏迟,总日数偏多.西传型厄尔尼诺事件的影响,全区大部低温阴雨结束期偏早,总日数偏少,无全区性结束期偏迟,总日数偏多的年份.(4)广西春季低温阴雨前期500hPa环流演变具有较明显的持续性.建立了低温阴雨天气预测概念模型.

Conceptual Prediction Model Of Low-temperature And Overcast-rain In Spring In Guangxi

This paper analyzes the periodicity and QBO feature of low temperature and overcast rain weather and its relationships with relative sunspot number and El nino event. The 500hPa circulation evolution feature in the prior period is also explored. It is pointed out that:(1)Quasi biennial oscillation exists in low temperature and overcast rain weather in Guangxi.(2) QBO feature is destroyed and. low temperature and overcast rain weather finished date is earlier than normal at sunspot maximum years. There is a 22 year oscillation in low temperature and overcast rain at sunspot minimum years. (3) The Finished date of low temperature and overcast rain weather is later and the days of that is more than normal as a result of eastward Elnino event. They are reverse when influenced by westward Elnino event. (4) Persistency of height of 500hPa potential in the prior period is obvious. At last conceptual prediction model of low temperature and overcast rain in Guangxi is set up in this paper.