Sensitivity of mountain runoff to climate change for Urumqi and Kaidu rivers originating from the Tianshan Mountains |
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| Authors: | YongChao Lan ZhengYao M YongPing Shen ChengFang L Jie Song XingLin Hu and HongWei Din |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology in Inland River Basin, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China 2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of the Upper Yellow River Headwater of the Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Lanzhou, Gansu 730030, China;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of the Upper Yellow River Headwater of the Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Lanzhou, Gansu 730030, China;1. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology in Inland River Basin, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China 2. Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;1. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology in Inland River Basin, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China 2. Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, Gansu Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development, Zhangye, Gansu 734000 |
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| Abstract: | The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoff were analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis. Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Urumqi River and Kaidu River Basins. Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Urumqi River Basin. |
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| Keywords: | south slope north slope Tianshan Mountains Kaidu River Urumqi River climate change sensitivity |
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