| 二滩水电站中长期径流预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周惠成,张杨,唐国磊,王雅军,蹇德平.二滩水电站中长期径流预报研究[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周惠成 张杨 唐国磊 王雅军 蹇德平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 大连理工大学,水资源与防洪研究所,辽宁,大连116023
2. 二滩水电开发有限公司,四川,成都,610021 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委员会、二滩水电开发公司雅砻江水电联合研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对二滩水电站的实际径流特性和水电站发电调度的要求,应用季节性自回归模型和人工神经网络模型对二滩水电站的月径流、汛期分段和年径流预报进行研究.结果表明,这两种模型对二滩水电站的月径流预报、汛期定性预报均达到了一定精度,可为二滩水电站优化调度的径流输入提供参考依据,尤其是AR(P)模型的非汛期月径流预测和BP模型年径流预测结果可在实际运行中使用.
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| 关 键 词： | 二滩水电站 季节性自回归模型 人工神经网络 中长期径流预报 |
Study on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting for Ertan Hydropower Station |
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| ZHOU Huicheng ZHANG Yang TANG Guolei WANG Yajun JIAN Deping.Study on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting for Ertan Hydropower Station[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2009,27(1). |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Huicheng ZHANG Yang TANG Guolei WANG Yajun JIAN Deping |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering;Dalian University of Technology;Dalian 116023;China;2.Ertan Hydropower Development Company;Ltd;Chengdu 610021;China |
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| Abstract: | This paper aims at the characteristics of the real runoff and the requirement of power generation dispatching of hydropower station,the seasonal autoregressive model and artificial neural network model are used to study the forecast of the monthly runoff,division of the flood season and annual runoff of Ertan hydropower station.The results show that both models possess a good precision for the prediction of the monthly runoff and the qualitative runoff forecast of the flood season in Ertan hydropower statio... |
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| Keywords: | Ertan Hydropower Station seasonal autoregressive model artificial neural network medium and long term runoff forecasting |
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