年调节水库兴利库容模糊聚类推求方法初探

传统方法探求水库兴利库容量是采用库容排频法或典型年法,其所得库容易受样本容量或个别特殊年份的影响,缺乏必要的稳定性。实质上,水文典型年是一个模糊概念,一个实际年型只能是在多大程度上属于“某类年型”,而决非“某类年型”本身,基于对此的认识,本文采用模糊聚类方法初步研究了年调节水库的兴利库容推求问题。

Preliminary Study on Fuzzy Classification Method to Determine Yearly-Reservoir's Active Storage

The methods existing presently to determine reservoir's active storage include vol-ume frequency curve means and typical year means, but the active storage is lack of necessary sta-bility, which is, affected heavily by sample size or particular event. In fact, "hydrologic typicalyear" is a fuzzy concept, a practical year only belongs to "certain typical year" in a certain range,but never just the oneself of "certain typical year". Considering the hydrologic typical year deter-mined by fuzzy classification theory being good representatives and stability, the fuzzy classifica-tion model was extended to calculate active storage of yearly reservoir in this paper.