| Abstract: | A nonrecursive model of the deterrent effect of police presence was formulated and tested for 26 cities. Victimization data
were employed as measures of crime, unpublished FBI data on the number of police patrol units as the measure of levels of
police presence, and data for 11 exogenous variables were derived from FBI and census reports. It was found that per capita,
police are a positive function of rates of violent crime and that clearance rates are a positive function of police presence.
However, some offenses that have traditionally been thought to be deterrable are not inversely related to clearance rates.
The equations were re-estimated using official measures of crime and found to be more consistent with the deterrent hypothesis.
It is suggested that official data may generate a spurious correlation. Finally, caution is suggested in consideration of
alternative forms of police presence. |
