江苏省区域旅游业碳排放测度及其因素分解

区域旅游业碳排放测度是分解旅游业减碳任务的需要。依托1997年、2002年和2007年的投入产出表和旅游终端收入,以江苏省为案例地,测度了旅游业各部门包括直接和间接碳排放的旅游业碳排放总量,并利用LMDI分解了影响因素的作用机理。结果显示,旅游业碳排放总量增长较快,较均衡分布于各部门,绝大多数来自间接层面;国内游客的碳排放总量显著高于入境游客,但前者的每人次碳排放远低于后者,也远低于发达国家,还低于发展中国家;省内各地区的碳排放总量和每人次碳排放均存在着显著差异;游客规模不断扩大和旅游消费水平持续提高是碳排放增长的主要驱动力,能源强度下降和能源结构调整则对碳排放具有一定的抑制作用,收入结构变动作用具有一定的阶段波动性特征。结果表明,旅游业减碳不仅需各部门共同分担,更依赖向其提供中间产品的关联产业的大力联动;国内游客是主要碳源,需要大量排放空间;游客每人次碳排放高的地区应承担较大的减排责任;降低能源利用强度和引导旅游消费低碳发展,是旅游业碳减排的主要方向。

Measuring carbon dioxide emissions for regional tourism and its factor decomposition:A case study of Jiangsu province

Carbon dioxide emissions of tourism, as an important study issue in tourism industry in the 21st century, is a vital index reflecting its effects on environment change. It is difficult to measure the emissions of regional tourism. The article, taking Jiangsu province as a case, based on the input-output tables and tourism expenditures of 1997, 2002 and 2007, makes an analysis of the direct emissions and indirect emissions of tourism from food, accommodation, transportation, sightseeing, shopping, entertainment and postal services, and then explores the mechanism of influencing factors by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The results are as follows: The total emissions of tourism industry in Jiangsu province in 1997, 2002 and 2007 were 22.57267 Mt, 33.90042 Mt and 62.43800 Mt, respectively, and the annual rate of growth was 10.71%. The indirect emissions account for about 73% of the total emissions. These percentages of food, accommodation, transportation, sightseeing, shopping and entertainment of total emissions in Jiangsu province are comparatively balanced, which, to some extent, reflects the character that the percentage of emissions from tourism sightseeing in China is higher than that of global level and national levels. The total emissions of domestic tourists are evidently higher than those of inbound tourists; however, the per-trip emissions of the inbound tourists are 4-7 times more than those of domestic tourists. There are significant differences of total emissions and per capita emissions among the cities within the province. Among the five factors affecting emissions of tourism industry, the increase of industry size and expenditure size are generally found to be principal drivers of emission growth, whereas the main factors restricting emissions are the decrease of energy intensity and the change of energy share. In addition, the effect of consumption structure shows fluctuation in different stages. These results imply the emission reduction of tourism industry not only needs the share responsibility from all tourism sectors but also strongly relies on the cooperation with related industries, which offer the intermediate goods for the consuming of tourism. Domestic tourists are the main carbon source, but still require more emission space due to low per capita emissions. The cities with higher per capita emissions should bear more obligation of emission reduction. Finally, it should be the main direction of emission reduction to reduce energy use intensity and develop low-carbon tourism behavior.