上海中尺度数值预报系统暴雨实时预报分析

简要介绍了最新研制的基于神威—Ⅰ超级计算机上的上海中尺度数值天气预报系统，其最高水平分辨率达到3km，并利用该系统对2002年5月29～30日华东地区的暴雨过程进行了实时预报；根据模式输出结果，分析了大尺度环境流场及各物理诊断量，探讨了该暴雨的主要成因；同时对单个站点的要素预报做了对比分析。结果表明：该数值天气预报系统具备了一定的业务运行能力，可为预报员提供较好的参考依据。

A Real Time Precipitation Forecast of Shanghai Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecast System

After a brief introduction of Shanghai mesoscale numerical weather forecast system, a real time forecast result of a heavy rain in East China during 29/05/2002 to 30/05/2002 is analyzed with output of this forecast system. The macro scale stream field and simulation result are analyzed and the main causes of the event are discussed. Furthermore, the predictands in correlative single stations are discussed. The results proved that the Shanghai mesoscale numerical weather forecast system has the ability at a certain extent in operation, and is worth of reference to forecasters.