| 基于模糊聚类理论的水量短期预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘洪波,张宏伟,闫静静.基于模糊聚类理论的水量短期预测方法[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2009(12):162-165. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘洪波 张宏伟 闫静静 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 天津大学环境科学与工程学院;天津工业大学环境与化学工程学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278062;50578108);天津市自然科学基金资助项目(043606511);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20050056016);天津市科技支撑重点项目(09ZCGYSF02200) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为提高城市供水系统水量负荷的预测精度,提出一种基于模糊聚类理论的城市管网水量短期负荷预测的新方法.该方法通过对负荷历史数据进行聚类、隶属度分析,利用模糊聚类参数来描述负荷与影响因素之间的关系,并应用这种确定的相关关系进行负荷预测.应用MATLAB语言进行预测仿真得到基于模糊聚类的模糊训练结果、最终预测结果和预测误差.实践表明该方法较多地考虑各种影响因素,结构简单,预测精度高.
|
| 关 键 词： | 城市供水管网 模糊聚类 短期预测 |
Short-term load forecasting technique for municipal supply water consumption based on fuzzy clustering theory |
| |
| LIU Hong-bo,ZHANG Hong-wei,YAN Jing-jing.Short-term load forecasting technique for municipal supply water consumption based on fuzzy clustering theory[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2009(12):162-165. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Hong-bo ZHANG Hong-wei YAN Jing-jing |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1(1.School of Environmental Science and Technology,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.School of Environment and Chemistry Engineering,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300160,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to improve the precision of short-term prediction for municipal supply water consumption,a new short-term load forecasting technique based on fuzzy clustering theory is presented.In this method,the historical load data are clustered,the relative membership degree is analyzed,and the fuzzy clustering parameters are employed to describe the relationship between the load and its influence factors.The results of fuzzy training and the forecasting results based on fuzzy clustering theory are obtained by applying software MAT-LAB.Simulation results show that this fuzzy clustering forecasting method is more accurate and faster than others.It indicates that this method is practicable for water consumption forecasting. |
| |
| Keywords: | municipal water supply networks fuzzy clustering short-term forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
