我国大气PM2.5及O3导致健康效益现状分析及未来10年预测

从人群健康角度分析我国大气PM_2.5和O₃污染导致的健康效益时空变化趋势及其影响因素，合理预测未来10年变化，为制定大气污染控制策略及目标提供决策支持.采用相对风险评估模型评估我国338个地级及以上城市2015—2018年大气PM_2.5和O₃污染导致健康效益的时空变化趋势，参考全球疾病负担2017年的方法估算人口数量、年龄结构、疾病死亡率及污染物浓度等因素对健康效益的贡献率，并设定不同目标情景预测2025年和2030年的健康效益.结果表明:①PM_2.5导致的过早死亡人数从2015年的152.21×104人降至2018年的136.82×104人，O₃导致的过早死亡人数从2015年的7.99×104人增至2018年的8.27×104人，两种污染物导致的健康效应最高值均出现在“2+26”城市.②人口数量、年龄结构、疾病死亡率和污染物浓度对归因于PM_2.5的过早死亡人数变化的贡献率分别为4.83%、30.55%、19.00%及45.62%，对归因于O₃的过早死亡人数变化的贡献率分别为17.76%、12.34%、23.41%及46.48%.③基于社会发展情况预测，大气PM_2.5浓度2025年需降至40 μg/m3以下、2030年需降至35 μg/m3以下，且大气O₃浓度2025年需与2018年持平、2030年比2018年降低4%，两种污染物导致的过早死亡人数才能与2018年接近.研究显示，未来我国应制定更高目标的大气污染控制政策，持续加强PM_2.5的污染控制，进一步遏制O₃的上升趋势，在生态环境保护上做到方向不变、力度不减，才能充分保障公众健康. 

Health Impact of PM2.5 and O3 and Forecasts for Next 10 Years in China

The temporal and spatial variation trends of health impact of PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China and the factors influencing human health were analyzed to provide support for the development of air pollution control strategies and targets. The relative risk evaluation model was used to evaluate spatial-temporal changes in the health effects of PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in 338 cities at and above the prefectural level in China from 2015 to 2018. The method in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Report was utilized to estimate the contribution rates of population size, age structure, disease mortality rate and pollutant concentration to health effects, and different target scenarios were set to predict health effects in 2025 and 2030. The results showed that premature deaths caused by PM_2.5 dropped from 1.522, 1 million in 2015 to 1.368, 2 million in 2018, while premature deaths caused by O₃ increased from 79, 900 in 2015 to 82, 700 in 2018, and the highest health effects caused by the two pollutants appeared in the '2+26' cities. The contribution rates of population size, age structure, mortality and pollutant concentration to premature deaths caused by PM_2.5 were 4.83%, 30.55%, 19.00% and 45.62%, respectively, while the contribution rates to premature deaths caused O₃ were 17.76%, 12.34%, 23.41% and 46.48%, respectively. Based on social development, PM_2.5 should be reduced to below 40 μg/m3 in 2025 and below 35 μg/m3 in 2030. By 2025, O₃ should be maintained the same level as in 2018. O₃ in 2030 should be 4% lower than in 2018, and the premature deaths attributed to these two pollutants should be close to that of 2018. In the future, China should develop air pollution control policies with a higher goal, continue to strengthen pollution control of PM_2.5, and further restrain the upward trend of O₃. The direction and efforts of ecological and environmental protection should remain unchanged and undiminished in order to fully protect public health.