东北地区耕地利用碳排放核算及驱动因素

随着我国社会经济的不断发展,耕地资源开发利用的广度和深度不断扩展,耕地的生产效率和生产规模逐步提高。与此同时,耕地管理活动中由农用品投入、能源消耗等产生的碳排放量也飞速增长。本研究以东北地区耕地利用碳排放为研究对象,采用生命周期法构建碳排放核算框架体系;基于东北地区1979—2015年碳排放量的估算结果,采用对数平均迪氏指数模型构建影响农业碳排放的驱动因素体系,深入探讨东北地区耕地碳排放的影响机制。结果表明: 与1979年相比,2015年耕地利用碳排放总量增长了21.9%,碳排放强度则降低了1.54 t·hm^-2。土壤管理和农用品投入碳排放是耕地利用碳排放的主要排放源,占排放总量的83.6%。土地生产率、科技资金配置率的提高,会增加耕地利用碳排放;投入产出比、人均耕地面积、科技投入强度降低,则会减少耕地利用碳排放。

Accounting and drivers of carbon emission from cultivated land utilization in Northeast China

With the continuous development of China’s society and economy, the breadth and depth of cultivated land resources development and utilization have been continuously expanded, while the production efficiency and scale of cultivated land gradually have been improved. There were rapidly increases of carbon emission induced from cultivated land management, such as the agricultural inputs and energy consumptions. Taking carbon emission from cultivated land utilization in Northeast China as the research object, we determined the carbon emission accounting framework system according to the life cycle method. Based on estimation results of carbon emissions from 1979 to 2015 in Northeast China, the driver factor system affecting agricultural carbon emissions was constructed using logarithmic mean Divisia index model and the influence mechanism of cultivated land carbon emissions in Northeast China was deeply explored. The results showed that total carbon emission from cultivated land utilization in 2015 was 21.9% higher than that in 1979 and carbon emission intensity in 2015 was 1.54 t·hm^-2 lower than that in 1979. Soil management and agricultural inputs were the main sources of carbon emissions from cultivated land accounting for 83.6% of the total carbon emissions. The increases of land productivity and science and technology fund allocation rate were found to be the driving factors of carbon emission from cultivated land utilization. On the contrary, the reduction of input/output ratio, cultivated land area per capita and intensity of science and technology investment decreased carbon emission from cultivated land utilization.