基于日降水量的江西省极端降水变化研究

利用STARDEX研究计划提出的PQ90、PX5D、PINT、PFL90、PNL90等5项主要极端降水指数,对江西省83个气象台站1961—2005年逐日降水量资料进行计算,并据此分析了45 a来江西省逐日极端降水强度和发生频率的变化情况。分析结果表明,江西省大多数台站逐日极端降水指数的年变化均呈上升趋势,且部分通过了信度为0.05的显著性检验;从指数的年代际变化看,所有指数在20世纪60—80年代变化不是很明显,但在90年代变化明显增大。总的来说,江西省逐日极端降水强度、极端降水临界值、极端降水的发生频率均呈增大趋势。

Research on Rainfall-Related Indices of Extreme Variation Based on Daily Data in Jiangxi Province

Using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2005 of 83 weather stations in Jiangxi province,the five core rainfall-related indices of extreme proposed by STADEX program were calculated and the variations of daily extreme precipitation intensity and frequency of the 45 a were analyzed.The results show that the annual variation of these indices has increasing tendency at most stations and some of them accept the hypothesis at the significance level of 0.05.The decade averages of these indices from 1960s to 1980s have no obvious change,however they obviously increased in 1990s.In conclusion,the extreme rainfall intensity,the thresholds of extreme rainfall and the frequency of extreme rainfall events have increasing tendency in Jiangxi province.