长三角一体化区域城市商品住宅价格分异机理研究

城市住宅价格及其空间差异是21世纪以来引起城市地理学者持续关注的热点问题。以长三角135个区县为研究对象,在通过分异度指数测度发现2014-2016年各区县商品房价差异增大的基础上,以商品房单位面积成交均价为因变量,提取16项房价影响因素为自变量,通过逐步回归和地理加权回归进行定量分析。研究发现：高校资源、经济密度、房产政策、经济实力、公共服务投入、高端从业者占比和产业结构7项指标对房价分异的影响最显著,而各因素对区域内房价的影响程度均具有显著的空间不稳定性。进而,提出房价是城市经济、人力、社会和行政等资源丰度的货币化表达,区域房价分异是城市支配资源能力差异的综合反映,其中行政资源在各类资源中占据主导地位。由此判断,长三角各区县房价在短时期内较难实现“俱乐部收敛”,沪宁杭等核心城市与外围地区的房价差距可能会继续扩大。

The price differentiation mechanism of commercial housing in the Yangtze River Delta

Urban housing price and its spatial differentiation has been a hot issue that has aroused the sustained attention of urban geographers since the beginning of this century. The present research covers 135 districts and counties in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The dependent variable used is the average price per square meter of commercial housing. 16 factors that affect housing price are used as independent variables. To arrive at the findings, the Theil index, stepwise regression and geographically weighted regression have been used. The findings are as follows: (1) The difference in the price of commercial housing between districts and counties in the YRD has been increasing from 2014 to 2016, and the difference in housing prices between the districts and counties with very expensive and very cheap housing has increased to more than 10 times; (2) Seven factors have the largest impact on housing price differentiation, namely: university and college resources, economic density, real estate policy, economic strength, investment in public services, the proportion of high-end practitioners and industrial structure; (3) The impact of the explanatory indicators shows significant spatial instability in the region. Based on these findings, this paper proposes that housing price is a monetized expression of the abundance of urban economy, human resources, social and administrative resources, etc., while regional housing price differentiation is a comprehensive reflection of the differences in the ability of cities to dominate resources, among which administrative resources play a leading role. Therefore, even if integrated development makes up the per capita economic index, the income level of residents in the YRD Region and the basic public services therein tend to play a similar role in the region. The significant differences in the ability of cities to gather scarce resources mean that it is relatively difficult for the housing prices of districts and counties in the YRD Region to achieve "club convergence" in the near term and the housing price differences between the core cites (Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, etc.) and other cities will continue to increase.