基于STIRPAT模型的山西省耕地变化研究

经济快速发展对耕地面积减少的影响，是当前土地利用变化研究领域的热点之一。本文以山西省为例，应用STIRPAT模型，分析总人口、城市化率、产业结构对耕地面积变化的影响及富裕度与耕地变化之间的相关性。结果表明：总人口对耕地减少产生线性正效应，但各城市影响强度差异明显，最大者是最小者的23倍；城市化率、产业结构对耕地面积的弹性系数均大于-1且小于0，说明这两个因素每发生1%的变化，耕地面积发生反向但小于1%的变化；在观测数据范围内，富裕度和耕地面积之间形成类似环境Kuznets曲线。据此研究认为，缓解山西省耕地面积减少的压力可从控制人口、调整产业结构等方面入手。

FARMLAND CHANGES IN SHANXI PROVINCE BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL

A fast developing economy leads to a decrease in farmland, which is hot in current research. This paper, based on a case study on Shanxi province, applies STIRPAT model to analyze the influence of population, urbanization ratio, industrial structures to farmland areas and the relation between affluence and farmland changes. The results imply that the gross population has a positive influence over farmland, but variable largely among cities, up to 23 times maximum vs minimum; the flexible coefficient of urbanization ratio and industrial structure to farmland area lies between -1 to 0, indicating a 1% change in either will lead to a less than 1% change in farmland area in reverse. In the range of measurable data, a similar Kuznets curve is formed between the affluence and farmland area. The key points to mitigate the farmland pressure lies in controlling population and adjusting industrial structure.