| 基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕秀艳,刘德辅,牟善军,李晓冬.基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究[J].中国海洋平台,2005,20(5):6-11,16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕秀艳 刘德辅 牟善军 李晓冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学,青岛市,266003
2. 中国石化集团安全工程研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评估 近海石油结构物 联合概率随机模拟技术 极端海洋环境 后果分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4500（2005）05-0006-6 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-11-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-11-012005-04-05 |
RISK ASSESSMENT FOR FIXED OFFSHORE PLATFORM BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY PREDICTION |
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| LU Xiuyan,LIU Defu,MU Shanjun,LI Xiaodong.RISK ASSESSMENT FOR FIXED OFFSHORE PLATFORM BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY PREDICTION[J].China offshore Platform,2005,20(5):6-11,16. |
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| Authors: | LU Xiuyan LIU Defu MU Shanjun LI Xiaodong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Ocean University of China, 2. Sinopec Safety Engineering Institution |
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| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for offshore structure.Based on the multivariate joint probability analysis and incorporate uncertainty,sensitivity analysis for extreme sea environmental loads,the stochastic simulation technique based on the importance sampling procedure is used to structure failure estimation some observed data in Bohai sea and failure consequence data by DNN are used to assess Chengbei 12-C platform and failure analysis of platform deck clearance.The risk assessment method proposed in this paper gives a new approach to establish a risk analysis system in such field. |
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| Keywords: | risk assessment offshore oil structures joint probability stochastic simulation technique extreme sea environments consequence analysis |
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