小子样状态下舰船特种阀门可靠性评估方法

针对舰船特种阀门 可靠性评估比较困难的问题,提出了将Bayes理论和相似性理论相结合的评估新方法.充分利用历史先验信息,并结合现场数据从而获得后验分布；利用相似性理论确定新旧型号阀门的相似度精确值.综合历史后验和后验分布,得到产品可靠性的融合后验.结合实例,对比分析了经典评估方法、传统Bayes方法和新方法所得到的新型号特种阀门可靠性的置信下限,验证了所提出方法的科学性和实用性.研究了新型号阀门的两参数威布尔寿命分布特性,给出了可靠度函数和可靠度寿命表达式,其计算结果可作为产品的接收判据,并在应用中提高了舰船特种阀门可靠性的评估精度,同时可以显著地减少现场试验样本数量.

Research on the reliability assessment of special vessel valves under a small sample condition

In order to reduce the difficulty of assessing special vessel valves,a new method of reliability assessment was proposed based on Bayes theory and similarity theory.The posterior distribution was obtained from prior information and current data,and then the precise similarity value between the new valve and the old one was calculated by using similarity theory.The fused posterior distribution was acquired by means of the integration of the history posterior and the posterior distribution.Combined with an example,lower confidence limits of reliability on a new special valve obtained by classical methods,traditional Bayesian analysis,and the new method proposed here were listed and analyzed.Therefore,the scientific quality and applicability of the new method proposed in this paper were verified.The features of two-parameter Weibull distribution of the new valve were analyzed,and the reliability function and reliability life expressions were obtained.Additionally,the calculation results were used as the criteria of product acceptance.Reliability evaluation precision was improved by this method in practical applications and the quantity of the test samples was significantly reduced.