宁夏地区气象因素与肺结核病的关联性研究

目的 探讨宁夏回族自治区(简称“宁夏”)气温等气象因素对肺结核发病的影响以及对敏感人群的识别,为宁夏地区肺结核病的预防控制提供参考依据。 方法 收集宁夏地区五个地市2011年1月1日至2015年12月31日的肺结核逐日发病数据与气象因素数据。以同一地区、年份、月份、星期几的日期作为时空分层变量,利用时空分层病例交叉设计的条件Poisson回归探讨不同气象因素对肺结核发病的影响。结果 2011—2015年宁夏地区共报告肺结核新发病例15 987例。男性(9 283例)发病数高于女性(6 704例),性别比为1.38:1。职业人群中以农民组(10 530例)病例最多,占总人群的65.9%。病例交叉设计的条件Poisson回归结果表明:气温升高对肺结核病的发病风险具有一定程度的保护作用(RR=0.987,95%CI:0.981～0.994),且对女性(RR=0.986,95%CI:0.978～0.994)的影响大于男性(RR=0.988,95%CI:0.981～0.996); 与0～35岁年龄组与65岁及以上年龄组相比,对36～64岁年龄组(RR=0.985,95%CI:0.977～0.994)的人群发病影响最大。 结论 宁夏地区的气温与肺结核发病具有相关性,气温降低可能增加肺结核病的发病风险,且对女性和36～64岁年龄组人群的发病影响较大。加强对肺结核病易感群体的监测和常态化防控工作,有助于制定更为精准的宁夏地区肺结核防控措施。

Association between meteorological factors and tuberculosis,Ningxia

Objective To explore the influence of temperature and other meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis and identify sensitive groups in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, thus providing reference for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in Ningxia. Methods Daily tuberculosis incidence data and meteorological factors data in five cities of Ningxia were collected from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2015. Taking the date of the same area, year, month and day of the week as stratified variables and using the conditional Poisson regression of space-time-stratified case-crossover design to explore the effects of different meteorological factors on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results A total of 15 987 new cases of tuberculosis were reported in Ningxia from 2011 to 2015. The number of males(9 283 cases)was higher than females(6 704 cases), with a sex ratio of 1.38 to 1. Farmers(10 530 cases)accounted for 65.9% among the occupational population. The results of conditional Poisson regression of case-cross design showed that the increasing temperature had a certain protective effect on the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis(RR=0.987, 95%CI: 0.981-0.994), and had a greater influence on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in females(RR=0.986, 95%CI: 0.978-0.994)than males(RR=0.988, 95%CI: 0.981-0.996). Compared with the 0-35 age group and the 65-year-old and above age group, it had the greatest influence on the incidence in 36-64 age group(RR=0.985, 95%CI: 0.977-0.994). Conclusion There is a correlation between temperature and tuberculosis in Ningxia. The decrease of temperature may increase the risk of tuberculosis and it has a greater impact on women and people aged 36-64 years. Strengthening the monitoring and regular prevention of tuberculosis susceptible groups is conducive to formulating more targeted prevention and control strategies for tuberculosis in Ningxia.