塔里木河流域径流变化趋势分析及预测

结合塔里木河流域三源流各水文站及干流阿拉尔52年(1957-2008年)的径流实测资料,运用时间序列周期方差分析外推、非参数检验和R/S分析等方法探讨了径流量的周期、跃变及未来的变化趋势。结果表明:阿克苏河两水系径流趋势增加显著并在未来的一段时间内将长期持续,其突变点皆在1993年;和田河同古孜洛克与乌鲁瓦提存在相反的径流趋势且突变不显著;叶尔羌河表现为微递增趋势并在1993年发生显著性突变,但在未来的一段时间这趋势将转变为减少;源、干流在突变、径流趋势、径流量等皆存在较大差异,这表明人类活动强烈干扰了干流的水文过程。

Trend analysis and forecast of the runoff change in Tarim River basin

Based on the observed monthly runoff data for 52 years(1957-2008) in 5 hydrological stations in headstream areas and the Alar station in the mainstream areas,the paper studied the runoff periodicity,abrupt change and the coming period trends by using the methods as time series periodic variance analysis extrapolation,nonparametric test,and R/S analysis.The results showed that the jump points of the two streams in Aksu river happened in 1993 and its runoff held significant increasing trend and will last for a long time in the coming period.The annual runoff tendency of Tongguzlok and Uruwat was just the reverse without abrupt change.the Yarkant River expressed a slightly increasing trend and its jump point was in 1993,which will turn to decrease trend;Theses aspects,for example abrupt change,annual runoff trend,total annual runoff volume and so on,are not consistent in headstream and mainstream of the areas,which dictates that the annual runoff process is significantly affected by human activity.