劳动力供求形势转折之下的就业结构与产业结构调整

从2004年开始,随着"民工荒"的出现,中国劳动力供求形势发生重大转折,劳动力短缺的形势越来越严峻,覆盖面越来越广。因此,需要对过去的有关学术观点、政府政策进行重新审视和调整。本研究认为,从长期趋势看,第三产业对就业的影响程度最大,吸纳就业能力最强,但第二产业的就业贡献率和就业弹性指标快速上升,甚至超过第三产业,"民工荒"在第二产业中表现得更加突出;虽然第一产业目前仍是就业人数最多的产业,但由于农村人口结构中青壮年及新生人口比例的不断下降,青壮年劳动力供给不足将成为长期趋势,农村剩余劳动力转移的潜力已经不大。对此,应优先满足第三产业的劳动力需求,通过大力提高劳动生产率来实现第二产业的发展,并推动产业结构调整,适度控制劳动密集型产业盲目扩张的趋势,缓解用工需求不断扩大的趋势;同时,大力发展知识、技术密集型产业,为大学生提供更多的就业机会,缓解大学生就业难。

The Adjustment of Employment and Industrial Structure under the Situation of Transformation of Supply and Demand of Labor Force

The situation of supply and demand of labor force in China has changed and the shortage of workers has become more and more serious since 2004-with the appearance of shortage of migrant workers.Under this situation,we should reexamine the past academic views and government policy.This paper holds that in the long run the tertiary industry(service industry) has the biggest impact on the employment,with strongest ability of creating jobs.But the employment contribution rate and elasticity of second industry has gone up rapidly and even surpassed the tertiary industry since 2004.Though agricultural industry has the largest number of employees,there is less surplus labor in rural area to migrate to cities because the proportion of young adults and new born population is decreasing.We hold that the labor demand of tertiary industry should be met firstly and meanwhile vigorously improve labor productivity to realize the development of the second industry,readjust industrial structure and appropriately control blind expansion of labor-intense industry to reduce the increasing labor demand and vigorously develop knowledge and technology-intense industry to increase the jobs for university students.