基于多米诺的橇装天然气处理厂事故后果研究

针对橇装设备的紧密性导致某一设备失效后引起的事故后果十分严重的情况，从橇装化处理厂出发，首先根据RBI公式计算出处理厂内各个橇装设备的失效概率，以失效概率最大的设备为失效设备进行爆炸模拟，然后根据Probit法计算周围设备的失效概率，得出初始事故（一次事故）的事故后果；再对失效概率为100%的设备进行二次爆炸模拟，再根据改进的Probit法计算周围设备的失效概率，得出二次事故的事故后果；最后比较一次事故与二次事故的后果严重程度。结果表明，橇装化处理厂一次事故的最大影响半径是49.5 m，二次事故最大影响半径扩大到161.2 m，而且还有发生三次事故的可能性；设备发生一次事故和二次事故后作业区的人员受伤概率都为100%，有关部门要对作业区加强防护。

Study on Accident Consequence of Skid Mounted Natural Gas Treatment Plant Based on Domino

In view of the serious accident consequences caused by the tightness of skid mounted equipment, starting from skid mounted treatment plant, first calculate the failure probability of each skid mounted equipment in the treatment plant according to RBI formula, take the equipment with the largest failure probability as the failure equipment for explosion simulation, then calculate the failure probability of surrounding equipment according to probit method, and get the initial event Therefore, the consequence of the accident (one accident); the second explosion simulation is carried out for the equipment with failure probability of 100%, and then the failure probability of the surrounding equipment is calculated according to the improved probit method to get the consequence of the second accident; finally, the consequence severity of the first accident and the second accident is compared. The results show that the maximum impact radius of the primary accident is 49.5 m, the maximum impact radius of the secondary accident is expanded to 161.2 m, and there are three possibilities of accidents; the probability of personal injury in the operation area after the primary accident and the secondary accident of the equipment is 100%, and the relevant departments should strengthen the protection of the operation area.