AFTOX烟团扩散预测模型参数敏感性分析

通过设置不同环境气象条件的风险污染源,选取最大高峰浓度和最大高峰浓度出现的时间为考察指标,采用正交试验法,分析环境风险评价预测模型AFTOX中大气稳定度、事故处地表粗糙度、事故处地表类型和干湿度对其预测结果的影响。分析结果表明,当风速一致时,大气稳定度对最大峰值浓度的影响总是大于事故处地表粗糙度以及事故处地表类型和干湿度,而最大峰值浓度出现的时间对各参数的敏感性无变化。

Analysis of Parameter Sensitivity in AFTOX Smoke Diffusion Forecasting Model

By setting up the risk pollution sources of different environmental meteorological conditions,the maximum peak concentration and the appearance time of maximum peak concentration are selected as the inspection indexes.The effects of atmospheric stability,surface roughness at the site of the accident,surface type at the site of the accident and dry humidity on the prediction results of the environmental risk assessment prediction model AFTOX are analyzed by means of orthogonal test.Analysis results show that when the wind speed is the same,the effect of the atmospheric stability on the maximum peak concentration is always greater than the surface roughness at the accident site,the surface type at the accident site and the dry humidity,but the sensitivity of each parameter does not change when the maximum peak concentration occurs.