基于多层次模糊综合评价的重力坝风险评估模型研究

针对重力坝的特点建立了风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法计算出各指标权重,建立起多层次模糊综合评价矩阵,计算出大坝的综合风险值,对照风险集得出评价结论,从而通过多层次模糊综合评价法建立起了重力坝风险评估模型,最后利用该模型对某重力坝进行了风险评估,评估结果与实际情况相符,说明该模型在大坝风险评估工作中具有较好的适用性。

Multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method-based study on risk assessment model for gravity dam

A risk assessment index system is established in accordance with the characteristics of gravity dam， and then the weights of all the indexes are calculated with the analytic hierarchy process， while the matrix of the multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established and the comprehensive risk value of the dam is calculated. Compared with the relevant risk set， the evaluation conclusion is obtained， thus the risk assessment model for gravity dam is established through the method of the multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally， the model is used to make the risk assessment on a gravity dam， from which the evaluation result coincides with that from the actuality. Therefore， it is demonstrated that this model has a better applicability for the risk assessment on gravity dam.