| 水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警系统的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周直,戴宠丝,方明准.水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警系统的研究[J].公路,2007(2):33-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周直 戴宠丝 方明准 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆交通大学,重庆市,400074
2. 温州苍南交通设计事务所,温州市,325000 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通部科技项目(2005319814030) |
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| 摘 要： | 从工程项目风险管理的角度出发,结合水泥混凝土路面可靠度设计的理论和方法,系统地分析了水泥混凝土路面设计中存在的不确定性因素,建立了水泥混凝土路面设计风险指标体系,确定了水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警指标及其阀值和相应的风险预警信号。应用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟的理论和方法,建立了水泥混凝土路面设计风险预警模型,从而增强了抵抗水泥混凝土路面设计风险的能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 水泥混凝土路面 设计 可靠度 风险分析 风险预警 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
| 文章编号： | 0451-0712（2007）02-0033-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-16 |
A Study on Risk Early Warning System of Cement Concrete Pavement Design |
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| ZHOU Zhi,DAI Chong-si,FANG Ming-zhun.A Study on Risk Early Warning System of Cement Concrete Pavement Design[J].Highway,2007(2):33-37. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Zhi DAI Chong-si FANG Ming-zhun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;2.Wehzhou Cangnan Communication Design Institute, Wenzhou 325000, China |
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| Abstract: | In terms of project risk management and on the basis of the theory and method of cement concrete pavement reliability design,the uncertain factors in the process of cement concrete pavement design are systematically analyzed,the index system of cement concrete pavement design risk is established,the risk early warning index,its threashold value and relevant risk early warning signal are defined.The theory and method of Monte Carlo are applied to establish design risk early warning model of the cement concrete pavement,which improve the capacity to withstand the cement concrete pavement design risk. |
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| Keywords: | cement concrete pavement design reliability risk analysis risk early warning Monte Carlo simulation |
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