中国人口老龄化空间格局演变及其驱动因素

基于第五、六次人口普查数据,采用ESDA和空间计量模型分析中国地级单元人口老龄化的空间格局演变特征及驱动因素。结果表明：① 胡焕庸线是中国人口老龄化呈东高西低的显著分割线,随着老龄化不断加深,最初自西向东阶梯上升的空间格局逐渐模糊;② 各地级单元间人口老龄化存在较强的空间正相关性,呈现出高-高和低-低相似值集聚的空间分布特征。其中高-高集聚区主要分布在长三角、成渝、山东半岛、辽中南等地区,低-低集聚区主要分布在西北地区、西南部分地区、东北地区西部和珠三角部分地区,10 a间这种正向的空间集聚特征减弱;③ 中国人口老龄化空间格局演变是由人口因素和社会经济因素共同作用决定的,人口因素是直接原因,根本原因是地区社会经济发展的不平衡所致。对此,分别从人口和社会经济角度提出应对人口老龄化对策建议。

The Evolution of China's Population Aging Spatial Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Based on the fifth and sixth Population Census data, this paper uses Exploratory Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial econometric model to analyze the spatial pattern evolution characteristics and driving factors of China's prefecture population aging. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The Hu Line is a significant dividing line of the overall pattern of China's population aging rate between the east-high and low-west. The regions with a high population aging rate in China are located to the east of the Hu Line, and the lower regions are located to the west of the Hu Line. As the aging population continues to increase, the spatial pattern of the initial population aging from the west to the east gradually changed. 2) China's population aging has a strong spatial positive correlation, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of high-high and low-low similarity aggregation. The high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Province and Chongqing, Shandong Peninsula, Middle and South Liaoning Province, etc. The low-low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in northwestern China, southwestern China, western China, and some prefecture-level cities of the Pearl River Delta. This positive spatial agglomeration has weakened over the past 10 years. 3)The spatial pattern of China's population aging is influenced by population factors and social and economic factors. Among them, the birth rate, mortality rate, education level and population density factors are significant, while the first three factors are always the determinants of population aging. Therefore the demographic factors are the direct factors affecting the evolution of the spatial pattern of China's population aging and the imbalance factors of social and economic development are the root cause. To this end, the recommendations on population aging are proposed from the aspects of population factors and social and economic factors.