中国三大城市群经济与环境协调度时空特征及影响因素

采用熵值法、泰尔指数、空间自相关、马尔科夫链等方法,分析2006—2016年中国京津冀、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲三大城市群经济与环境协调度的时空格局特征,并运用Tobit模型探讨其影响因素。结果表明：① 研究期内三大城市群经济与环境协调度持续增长,珠三角协调度最高,长三角协调度增速最快;② 三大城市群内部城市之间的差异波动减小,珠三角城市群的减小幅度最小;③ 三大城市群经济与环境协调等级演化具有一定的路径依赖,但随时间推移有向高一级状态转移趋势;④ 行政级别较高的城市及部分沿海沿江发达城市的经济与环境协调度持续处于较高水平;⑤ 三大城市群经济与环境协调度空间特征由分散走向集聚;⑥ 经济发达的城市经济与环境趋向于“同步发展”;⑦ 能源消耗水平、科学技术水平、固定资产投资强度、外资依存度和所有制结构对三大城市群的经济与环境协调度具有影响,但各因素影响的显著程度有差异。

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of coordination between economic and environmental development of three major urban agglomerations in China

This paper analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern of the degree of coordination between economic and environmental development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta from 2006 to 2016 by means of entropy method, Theil index, Markov chain and spatial autocorrelation, and then explored the influencing factors with Tobit model. The results showed that: (1) The degree of coordination between economic and environmental development of the three major urban agglomerations grew continuously from 2006 to 2016. In addition, the differences between the cities gradually narrowed. (2) Path dependence played a role in the evolution of the level of economic and environmental coordination. However, the degree of coordination between economic and environmental development tended to reach a higher level with the passage of time. (3) Cities with higher administrative levels and some developed cities along rivers or the sea continued to be at a higher level of degree of coordination between economic and environmental development. (4) The spatial characteristics of the degree of coordination between economic and environmental development of the three major urban agglomerations had changed from decentralization to agglomeration. (5) Regarding the type of development, the economically developed cities tended to develop simultaneously with the environment. (6) Energy consumption, progress in science and technology, investment in fixed assets, dependence on foreign investment and ownership structure have impacts on the degree of coordination between economic and environmental development of the three urban agglomerations as a whole and each urban agglomeration, but the significant degree of the influence of each factor is different.