新疆水资源时空变化特征及适应性利用战略研究

在深入剖析新疆水资源时空演变特征的基础上，对不同气候模式下的新疆水资源演变趋势进行分析，并结合对水资源适应性利用机理的理解，提出变化环境下新疆水资源适应性利用对策及战略框架。研究认为，未来一段时期内新疆降水呈增加趋势，不同气候模式下多年平均降水量分别较基准期增加15.6%、20.8%和22.2%，一定程度导致水资源量变化；在此条件下进行水资源适应性利用战略研究，提出了工程支撑、政策支撑及科技支撑三大支撑体系，旨在为实现新疆水资源合理开发利用、经济社会可持续发展、生态环境保护及人水和谐目标提供借鉴。

Study on spatio-temporal variation characteristics and adaptive utilization strategy of water resources in Xinjiang

On the basis of analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of water resources in Xinjiang, the evolution trends of water resources in Xinjiang under different climate patterns are analyzed. Based on the understanding of the mechanism of adaptive utilization of water resources, the countermeasures and strategic framework of adaptive utilization of water resources in Xinjiang under changing environment are put forward. The results show that the precipitation in Xinjiang will increase in the coming period, and the annual average precipitation under different climate patterns will increase by 15. 6%, 20. 8% and 22. 2% respectively, which will lead to the change of water resources. Under this condition, the adaptive utilization strategy of water resources is studied, and three support systems of engineering support, policy support and science and technology support are put forward, the aim is to provide reference for realizing the goals of rational development and utilization of water resources, sustainable development of economy and society, protection of ecological environment and harmony between human and water.