基于GIS和概率积分法的北洺河铁矿开采沉陷预测及应用

金属矿山多为裂隙发育的块状岩体，因而开采引起的地表沉陷机制不同于层状地层的煤矿。为指导矿山安全生产及地表沉陷治理提供科学依据，以崩落法开采矿山地表沉陷为具体研究对象，对北洺河铁矿开采沉陷预测研究，将基于GIS和概率积分法的开采沉陷预测方法应用于采用无底柱分段崩落法的金属矿山中。通过GIS建模全面反映矿区的三维地理、地质信息及其内在属性，应用基于概率积分法和组件技术开发的MSDAS-GIS系统进行开采沉陷预测。利用GIS强大的空间分析和图形显示功能对预测结果进行分析和处理，并直观反映出开采沉陷对周围环境的影响程度及范围。通过与地表观测数据及实际情况的对比分析，验证预测方法的适用性，同时也为指导金属矿山安全生产提供良好的三维可视平台。

GIS AND PROBABILITY INTEGRAL BASED APPROACH FOR SUBSIDENCE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION TO BEIMINGHE IRON MINE

The mining subsidence mechanism of metal mine with fractured blocky rock mass is different from that of coal mine with layered rock mass.In order to guide the safety production and prevent the ground subsidence,the Beiminghe iron mine is taken as the research background.Based on GIS(geographic information system) and probability integral approach,a research is done for predicting the subsidence of Beiminghe iron mine.A three-dimensional calculating model related to geographic,geologic and inherent information is established;and then the system MSDAS-GIS,which is developed by the probability integral and component techniquesi,s used to predict the mining subsidence.By using the effective spatial analytical function and the drawing tool of GIS,the analytic results intuitively show the degree and scope of mining subsidence.By comparison with the observation data of the ground surface and actual situation,the proposed approach is verified and a three-dimensional visual platform is offered for safety control of the metal mine.