Numerical simulation of cold easterly circulations over the Canadian Western Plains using a mesoscale boundary-layer model

Arctic outbreaks over the Canadian Western Plains during the late spring period frequently take the form of a cold east-northeasterly flow over a warmer, sloping surface. A mesoscale numerical model is developed in an attempt to simulate such circulations. Following Lavoie (1972) the atmospheric structure of the cold air mass is represented by three layers: a constant flux layer in contact with the earth's surface, a well-mixed planetary boundary layer capped by an inversion, and a deep stratum of overlying stable air. Averaging the set of governing primitive equations through the depth of the mixed layer yields predictive equations for the horizontal wind components, potential temperature, specific humidity, and the height of the inversion. Time-dependent calculations are limited to this layer by parameterizing the interactions between the mixed layer and both the underlying and overlying layers. Precipitation from limited convective clouds, and latent heat within the layer are included in terms of mesoscale variables.A 47.6-km by 47.6-km grid mesh of 1369 points covering the Canadian Prairie Provinces is used to represent the variables. The governing equations are solved numerically with terrain influences, surface roughness, temperature variations, and moisture fluxes allowed to perturb the mixed layer from its initial conditions until resultant mesoscale boundary-layer weather patterns evolve.The mean spring topographic precipitation pattern is successfully reproduced by the simulated late spring upslope flow with limited convective precipitation. Mesoscale planetary boundary-layer weather patterns appear to exert a dominant control over the location and intensity of perturbations in the spring precipitation pattern. The elimination of surface heating significantly reduces the area and intensity of precipitation. A case study based on observed initial conditions showed that the model could reproduce a persistent limited convective precipitation pattern maintained by upslope flow and that a low-level trough exerts a marked influence on the location and the intensity of the precipitation.