山西省孝义市近40年气候变化特征分析

为了深入研究山西省孝义市气候变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验及Morlet小波变换等方法对孝义市1975-2015年气候要素进行趋势估计、突变检验、周期分析及发展趋势预测。结果表明:近40年来,孝义市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,突变年份为1996年,存在32、9 a长周期;年降雨量呈不显著下降趋势,突变年份为1990年,存在32、6 a长周期;年蒸发量呈显著性上升趋势,突变年份为1997年,存在32、10 a长周期;年平均相对湿度呈显著下降趋势,突变年份为1982、2003年,存在15、32 a长周期。孝义市1975-2015年年代际气候经历了"冷湿-暖湿-暖干"的变化过程,预测全境2017-2030年年代际气候将经历"冷湿-暖干"的变化过程。

Analysis of characteristics of climate change in Xiaoyi City of Shanxi Province for recent 40 years

In order to study the characteristics and trend of climate change in Xiaoyi city of Shanxi province, this paper uses the Mann-Kendall test, the sliding T test and the Morlet wavelet transform to forecast the trend of climate elements in Xiaoyi city from 1975 to 2015, using the mutation test, cycle analysis and development trend prediction. Results are as follows: In the past 40 years, the average temperature had significantly upward trend and long period of 32 and 9 years while the mutation occurred in 1996. The precipitation had non-significant downward trend and long period of 32 and 6 years while the mutation occurred in 1990. The annual evaporation had significantly upward trend and long period of 32 and 10 years while the mutation occurred in 1997. The annual average relative humidity had significant downward and long period of 15 and 32 years while mutation occurred in 1982 and 2003. Climate changed from cool-humid to warm-humid to warm-dry from 1975 to 2015 and it is predicted that the climate would change from cool-humid to warm-dry from 2017 to 2030 in Xiaoyi city.