利用感度试验数据分析火工品贮存可靠性

火工品属于一种长寿命且高可靠性的敏感性产品，为了提高其贮存可靠性评估精度，研究了火工品贮存可靠性的特点，给出了一种利用感度试验数据的火工品贮存可靠性分析方法。该方法利用升降法试验来获得感度分布参数的估计，并对参数估计进行了处理，使其满足一定序约束条件。结合该估计值，选取合适的模型来描述感度分布参数与贮存时间的关系，并对模型参数进行了统计推断。利用该模型，给出了贮存可靠性置信限和贮存寿命置信限。数值算例表明该方法可以用于高可靠性火工品的贮存可靠性评估与贮存寿命预测。

Storage Reliability Analysis for Explosive Initiator Using Sensitivity Test Data

To improve the accuracy of storage reliability analysis for the explosive initiator, the sensitivity test was studied and the storage reliability analysis for explosive initiator was proposed using the sensitivity test data. In the method, the estimations of sensitivity distribution parameters were obtained from the up-down test data, and were processed to be order restriction with the isotonic regression. Then using the order restriction estimations, the model was established to relate the sensitivity distribution to storage time. Using the model, the confidence interval of storage reliability and storage life were obtained. The illustrative example shows that the method is available for storage reliability assessment or storage life prediction on the explosive initiator with high reliability.