| 一种新的中长期电力负荷预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩富春,姚劲松,赵铭凯.一种新的中长期电力负荷预测方法[J].电工技术学报,1994(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩富春 姚劲松 赵铭凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 太原工业大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出了一种新的中长期电力负荷预测方法。该方法将回归与自回归模型进行了有机的综合，形成了时间序列混合回归数学模型。采用ＢＩＣ准则函数进行选元定阶。较好地提高了预测精度。经实例计算得到了满意的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统，预测，数学模型 |
A New Method of the Middle or Long Term Electric Load Forecasting |
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| Han Fuchun, Yao Jiusong, Zhao Mingkai.A New Method of the Middle or Long Term Electric Load Forecasting[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,1994(4). |
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| Authors: | Han Fuchun Yao Jiusong Zhao Mingkai |
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| Affiliation: | Taiyuan University of Technology |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new method of the middle or long term electric load. The method combines the regression model with the autoregression model and composes the time-alignment mixed regression mathamatical model. BIC criterion is used to choose the variable and defined the steps. The accuracy and the range of the load forecasting are increased, verified by practical examples. This method has been in successful usage. |
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| Keywords: | Power system Forecast Mathamatical model |
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