中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录，历史地震也在不断更新，为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本，因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明，对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整，西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0），东部地区1500年后基本完整，西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥4³/₄）活动的时间非平稳性，我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征，得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置，并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.

Statistical analysis of the completeness of earthquake catalogs in China mainland

Earthquake catalogs are the basic data for earthquake prediction, seismic hazard analysis and other seismological studies. The analysis of the completeness and reliability of seismic catalogs is one basic work of seismology. In recent decades, our country has accumulated a large number of catalogs of instrumental and historical of destructive earthquakes. These catalogs provide rich samples for seismicity study. So it is necessary to analyze the completeness of these catalogs. In this paper, we use several statistical approaches to conduct this work. The results show that, the instrumental earthquake catalogs for magnitude equal to 3.0 or greater can be considered complete after 1975 for eastern Chinese mainland and after 1980 for western China. The historical catalog for magnitude equal to 5.0 or greater can be considered complete after 1500 for eastern Chinese mainland and after 1950 for western China. Considering the temporal non-stationary of the historical destructive earthquake catalogs in North China, we analyze the completeness of earthquake catalogs for this region by using Change-point analysis method. The result shows that the historical destructive earthquake catalogs in North China can be considered complete after 1500.