Regional projection of future extreme wave heights around Korean Peninsula

In this study, future changes in regional extreme wave heights around the Korean Peninsula are projected by using the results of an atmosphere general circulation model and a third-generation wave model. The direct use of the model output at each grid point is not appropriate even though high resolution of 20 km is used for the models. Therefore, the model output is grouped into six regions around the Korean Peninsula. The grouping approach is reasonable in assessing climate change effects with alleviated model uncertainty. The extreme wave heights are simulated for two climate periods of 1979–2003 (present climate) and 2075–2099 (future climate). The model results are validated by comparing the simulated wave heights for the present climate with observed and hindcasted wave data. The extreme wave heights for the future climate are then projected for different seasons and in different regions. The 50-year return wave height in summer is projected to increase in most regions, especially in the high-latitude Yellow Sea and the East Sea, while the wave height in winter is projected to decrease in all the regions, especially in the East Sea.