基于Monte Carlo与Markov法参数不确定性条件下SIL评估

为了避免由参数不确定性因素导致较大的Markov法SIL评估偏差,且减少计算工作量和复杂性，采用Monte Carlo（MC）仿真方法处理含不确定性参数的Markov模型，并借助Matlab GUI编程开发MC仿真处理参数不确定性条件下Markov法SIL评估可视化仿真计算软件。在理论研究的基础上，为说明该研究方法与计算软件的可行性，以石油天然气工业高完整性压力保护系统（HIPPS）为算例进行SIL评估。结果表明:MC仿真方法可以有效处理Markov法SIL评估中参数不确定性问题；基于Matlab GUI编程设计出的仿真计算软件在一定程度上可以提高计算效率。

SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty based on Monte Carlo and Markov methods

In order to avoid the larger deviation of SIL (safety integrity level) evaluation by Markov method caused by parameters uncertainty factor, and reduce the calculation workload and complexity, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method was used to process the Markov model with uncertainty parameters, and a visualization simulation calculation software of Markov method SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty processed by MC simulation was developed by using MATLAB GUI programming. On the basis of theoretical research, an high integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) in oil and gas industry was taken as example of SIL evaluation to illustrate the feasibility of the research method and calculation software. The results showed that the MC simulation method can effectively deal with the problem of parameters uncertainty in SIL evaluation by Markov method, and the simulation calculation software based on Matlab GUI programming design can improve the calculation efficiency to some extent.