基于降雨资料的雨量预警指标阈值求解模型

为保证雨量预警指标阈值在有效周期范围内发挥预警作用，通过分析现有雨量预警指标阈值的确定方法，提出了基于区域临界雨量法-降雨灾害同频率法-R/S分析法的雨量预警指标阈值求解模型。将该模型应用于江苏省泰兴市降雨时间序列的分析，对最大日降水量时间序列进行阈值确定、趋势分析，并用指标阈值进行预警验证。结果表明，该模型的雨量预警指标阈值确定结果相较单一模型更为准确，且具有一定的时效性，可为农村基层防汛预报预警提供参考。

Model for solving rainfall early-warning index threshold based on rainfall data

To ensure the effectiveness of the rainfall early-warning index threshold in early warning within a certain period, an analysis of existing methods for determination of the rainfall early-warning index threshold was performed, and a model for solving the rainfall early-warning index threshold was developed based on the regional critical rainfall method, the same frequency method of rainfall events and disasters, and the R/S analysis method. Then, the model was verified through its application to analysis of the rainfall time series in Taixing City, Jiangsu Province. The threshold for the maximum daily rainfall time series was determined, the its variation trend was analyzed. Results show that the threshold obtained with the model is more accurate than that of single models, and has a certain timeliness, which can provide reference for rural flood control forecast and early warning.