中国电价调整经济影响的投入产出分析

中国国家发展改革委员会在2008年6月19日宣布调整部分能源产品价格,其中,规定自7月1日起将全国销售电价平均每kW.h提高2.5分钱。电力工业作为一个基础性的能源产业,其产品渗透到了经济体的各个方面,对经济发展和社会进步起着不可低估的作用,其价格调整必将引起相关产业部门的相应调整,进而影响到整个经济体的运行和社会生活的稳定。基于投入产出方法,量化了此次电价调整对经济的影响,并设定了不同的调价方案,分析了不同调价方案对经济运行的影响程度。通过分析,得出的结论是:此次电价调整在社会可承受范围之内,不会对经济产生太大的不利影响,未来的电价仍然有调升的空间;电价变动对不同部门产生的影响不同,在制定电价政策时,应充分考虑各个部门的承受能力,做到既有利于电力工业发展,又有利于产业结构的优化。

Analysis on impact of electricity price adjustment in China based on input-output method

On June 19,2008,the National Development and Reform Commission announced an adjustment of some energy products' price and the average electricity sales price was raised 2.5 cent per kW·h since July 1,2008.Electric power industry is one of the basic energy industries and electricity is broadly used in most aspects of economy and social life.The adjustment of electricity price will inevitably result in a corresponding adjustment of related sectors.This will further affect the development of economy and stability of resident' s living.Based on Input-output method,this paper quantifies the impact of the latest electricity price adjustment on related sectors and whole economy and resident' s living,and concluded that the economy can stand the June 19 electricity price adjustment. This adjustment will not have much adverse impact on economy and resident' s living.There still is adjustment space for electricity price in the future.The impacts of electricity price adjustment on each sector are different and it is necessary to consider each sector' s capacity for acceptance when the price policy is made.The price policy is supposed to be beneficial to the development of electric power industry as well as to the optimization of industrial structure.