中国七星瓢虫群聚和迁飞的数学分析

自1976年首次在秦皇岛海岸发现七星瓤虫的群聚现象以来,又经过连续8年的广泛研究,进一步讨论了七星瓤虫在黄、渤海域的群聚范围、群聚数量、群聚规律以及迁飞等问题。本文的重点是试图从数学上论证七星瓤虫的迁飞,并进一步预测预报七星瓤虫的群聚日期,以便为群聚七星瓢虫的利用奠定基础。 根据可能有关的因子设64个自变量,2个因变量,通过反复计算,大量筛选可能与虫情有关的气象因子,结果入选的气象因子说明,群聚瓢虫是迁飞过程中迫降入海,并由风浪推上海岸的。经过用双层筛选逐步回归和逐步判别两种数学方法去筛选自变量,结果基本上是一致的。因此从定量角度对七星瓢虫的群聚和迁飞给出了论证。并说明七星瓢虫的群聚与近期气象条件密切相关,可以利用短期或中期气象预报代入判别式进行群聚的预测预报。

A MATHEMATICAL DEMONSTRATION OF THE MIGRATION OF LADYBEETLE,COCCINELLA SEPTEMPUNCTATA L.IN CHINA

The ladybeetle Coccinella septempunctata L. is a major natural enemy of aphides, the aphid is a serious pest of agriculture and forestry. Sudden increase in the number of the beetles and then their aggregation occurred in the vast land at seaside of the Gulf of the Bohai sea and the Yellow sea of China. Detailed analysis showed that these beetles which appeared at seaside most probably did not occur in the local area, in which they migrated in large quantity from elsewhere. The observation of last eight yea...