| 贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络在我国医院床位预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐建伟.贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络在我国医院床位预测中的应用[J].山西医科大学学报,2008,39(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐建伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国疾病预防控制中心慢病社区处,北京,100050 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络在我国医院床位预测中的应用. 方法 利用1990-2006年我国医院床位历史数据,建立贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络进行拟合预测,并与指数平滑预测、自回归模型的预测结果进行比较. 结果 三种方法预测结果的相对误差分别为0.58%,3.62%,1.48%.贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络模型预测精度更高,效果更好,优于传统方法. 结论 贝叶斯正规化BP神经网络预测模型可以用于我国医院床位预测.
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| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 贝叶斯正规化 医院床位 |
Application of Bayesian-regularization BP neural network in the prediction of hospital beds |
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| XU Jian-wei.Application of Bayesian-regularization BP neural network in the prediction of hospital beds[J].Journal of Shanxi Medical University,2008,39(9). |
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| Authors: | XU Jian-wei |
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| Affiliation: | Division of NCD Control and Community Health;Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Beijing 100050;China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the application of Bayesian-regularization BP neural network for predicting hospital beds. Methods According to the data of hospital beds from 1990 to 2006,Bayesian-regularization BP neural network was established.The forecast results were compared with exponential smoothing and autoregressive model. Results The relative errors of results with the three methods were 0.58%,3.62% and 1.48% in forecasting hospital beds,respectively.The forecasting result with Bayesian-regularization BP neu... |
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| Keywords: | BP neural network Bayesian-regularization hospital beds |
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