| 2014—2018年武汉市大气颗粒物的急性超额死亡风险研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范传刚,何思怡,王婧,崔秀青,代娟,谢曙光.2014—2018年武汉市大气颗粒物的急性超额死亡风险研究[J].实用预防医学,2021,28(6):695-698. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范传刚 何思怡 王婧 崔秀青 代娟 谢曙光 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.湖北省疾病预防控制中心卫生监测与检验防护所,武汉 430079; 2.武汉大学健康学院,武汉 430071;3.武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防治所,武汉 430010 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省卫生健康委员会面上项目(WJ2021M205) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨武汉市大气颗粒物(PM10、PM2.5)对人群的急性超额死亡风险和导致的年均超额死亡人数。 方法 收集2014年1月—2018年12月武汉市城区每日死亡人数、PM2.5和PM10日均浓度以及气象条件等资料。采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5、PM10与非意外死亡人数的暴露-反应关系,表征武汉市PM2.5和PM10对暴露人群短期超额死亡的影响。 结果 5年间,PM2.5和PM10年均浓度从2014年的88.7 μg/m3和115.4 μg/m3逐年下降到2018年的51.6 μg/m3和75.0 μg/m3;每日PM2.5、PM10浓度与非意外死亡人数均显著相关,并存在显著的滞后效应。在lag 0 d,PM2.5和PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3,非意外死亡人数分别升高1.03%(95%CI: 0.82%~1.23%)和0.67%(95%CI:0.51%~0.82%);5年间,PM2.5和PM10污染所致武汉城区当日暴露人群平均每年超额死亡338人和104人。 结论 大气颗粒物PM2.5和PM10浓度升高可能导致非意外死亡人数的显著升高,显著增加居民的短期超额死亡风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 大气颗粒物 PM10 PM2.5 非意外死亡 超额死亡风险 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-05 |
Risk of acute excess death related to atmospheric particulates in Wuhan City, 2014-2018 |
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| FAN Chuan-gang,HE Si-yi,WANG Jing,CUI Xiu-qing,DAI Juan,XIE Shu-guang.Risk of acute excess death related to atmospheric particulates in Wuhan City, 2014-2018[J].Practical Preventive Medicine,2021,28(6):695-698. |
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| Authors: | FAN Chuan-gang HE Si-yi WANG Jing CUI Xiu-qing DAI Juan XIE Shu-guang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute for Health Surveillance, Inspection and Protection,Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China;2. School of Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China;3. Institute for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430010, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the risk of acute excess death caused by atmospheric particulate matters (including PM10 and PM2.5) among people and the annual average number of excess deaths due to them in Wuhan City. Methods We collected the data regarding the number of daily death, the daily average concentration ofPM2.5 and PM10, and meteorological information in the urban area of Wuhan City from January 2014 to December 2018. Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the associations among PM2.5, PM10 and the number of non-accidental deaths, and the effects of PM2.5 and PM10 exposure on short-term excess death were characterized. Results During the 5-year period, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 decreased from 88.7 μg/m3 and 115.4 μg/m3 in 2014 to 51.6 μg/m3 and 75.0 μg/m3 in 2018. The daily concentration ofPM2.5 and PM10 was significantly correlated with the number of non-accidental deaths, and there were significant lag-effects. At the lag of 0 day, the number of non-accidental deaths increased by 1.03% (95%CI:0.82%-1.23%) and 0.67% (95%CI:0.51%-0.82%) for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and PM10 concentration. During the 5-year period, the annual average excess death numbers of people daily exposed to PM2.5 and PM10 in the urban area of Wuhan City were 338 and 104, respectively. Conclusion The increased PM2.5 and PM10 concentration may lead to a significant increment in the number of non-accidental deaths, and significant increase the risk of short-term excess death in the residents. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric particulate matter PM10 PM2 5 non-accidental death risk of excess death |
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