中国房地产投资周期波动实证分析及预测

房地产行业已成为我国国民经济的支柱产业,而房地产开发投资对房地产行业的发展发挥着重要的引领和先导作用,对其发展规律的研究不但具有理论价值,更具备重要的实践意义。文中主要针对我国的房地产开发投资的周期性变化进行实证分析,并借助AR IMA模型进行短期预测,旨在揭示房地产投资在我国的发展轨迹、原理机制以及周期规律,以求能对实践有所裨益。

An Empirical Study and Forecast of the Cyclic Fluctuation of Real Estate Investment in China

As one of the key factors affecting the real estate,the development investment exerts leading influence on the real estate industry,which has become the pillar industry in the economic development of China.This paper aims to show the evolution route,the inner rule and the mechanism of the cyclic fluctuation of the real estate investment in China,and to give a reasonable short-term forecast of the investment based on the establishment of the ARIMA model,in order to contribute to a nicer performance of the industry in the future.