5个IPCC AR4全球气候模式对东北三省降水模拟与预估

利用IPCC AR4中5个全球气候模式数据集和中国东北三省162个站降水实测资料，评估5个全球气候模式和多模式集合平均对中国东北三省降水的模拟能力，并对SRES B1、A1B和A2三种排放情景东北三省未来降水变化进行预估。结果表明：全球气候模式能较好再现东北三省降水的月变化，但存在系统性湿偏差；多模式集合平均能较好模拟东北三省年降水量的空间分布，但模拟中心偏北，强度略强，模式对东北三省夏季降水的模拟效果优于冬季降水；预估结果表明，三种排放情景下21世纪中前期和末期东北三省降水均将增多，21世纪末期增幅高于21世纪中前期，冬季增幅高于其他季节；就排放情景而言，SRES A1B和A2排放情景增幅相当，高于B1排放情景增幅；不同排放情景东北三省降水量增率分布呈较一致变化，A2排放情景下，增幅最显著的辽宁环渤海地区年降水量在21世纪中前期将增加7%以上，21世纪末期将增加16%。

Projection and evaluation of precipitation over Northeast China based on five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models

Based on five global climate datasets from IPCC AR4 and the observational precipitation data at 162 me-teorological stations in the Northeast China,precipitation simulated by five global climate models and the multi-model ensemble （MME）was evaluated.Precipitation change was predicted and assessed under three emission sce-narios,i.e.SRES B1,A1B and A2.The results show that monthly precipitation could be well simulated by the global climate model in the Northeast China,while simulated values are systematically wetter than observed val-ues.The MME could well simulate spatial distributions of precipitation,while simulated center lies to the north of its observed position and simulated precipitation intensity is stronger than observed values.Also,the simulated pre-cipitation using this model is more accurate in summer than in winter in the Northeast China.According to the pro-jection,precipitation could increase in the 2 1 st century under three emission scenarios.Increasing amplitude of pre-cipitation is higher in the later 2 1 st century than in the early and middle 2 1 st century,so is in winter than in other three seasons.For three emission scenarios,increasing amplitude of precipitation under SRES A2 are as much as that under SRES A1B,while both are more than that under SRES B1.Distributions of precipitation are almost simi-lar in all scenarios.Increasing amplitude of precipitation is the largest around the Bohai Sea region,and it will in-crease by 7% in the early and middle of 21st century and 16% in the later of 21st century under SRES A2.