中国资源型城市可持续发展效率空间格局演变及其影响因素

以2002-2012年中国115个地级资源型城市为研究对象，利用非期望产出模型SBM-Undesirable测度资源型城市可持续发展效率，运用ESDA-GIS、趋势面分析和面板数据模型分析了资源型城市可持续发展效率的时空特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）中国资源型城市可持续发展效率水平一般且呈下降趋势，并且存在显著的空间依赖性和异质性，不同类型的城市差异明显；（2）2002-2012年，资源型城市可持续发展效率冷、热点空间格局发生了很大的变化，热点区和冷点区范围缩小，可持续发展效率两极分化趋势减弱；（3）经济规模，人口规模与可持续发展效率显著负相关；产业结构呈对可持续发展效率具负向影响，但在统计上不显著；政府规制、就业结构和科教水平对可持续发展效率具正向影响。

Evolvement of Spatial Pattern of Sustainable Development Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors for Resource-based Cities in China

Taking the prefectural-level resource-based cities in China as studying object during 2002-2012, we adopt SBM-Undesirable model to measure the sustainable development efficiency of the resource-based cities in China. At the same time, ESDA-GIS, trend surface analysis and panel data model were used to analyze the space-time characteristics and the influencing factors of sustainable development efficiency of the resource-based cities. The results showed that:(1) The level of sustainable development efficiency of resource-based cities in China was general, and there were downward trend, spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, and the difference of different types of cities was significant.(2) During 2002-2012, great changes had taken place for the spatial pattern of hot spots and cold spots of sustainable development efficiency of resource-based cities, the areas of hot spots and cold spots have decreased, which showed that the polarization trend had weakened. (3) Economic scale and population scale had a weak negative correlation with sustainable development efficiency of resource-based cities; Industrial structure had a negative influence on sustainable development efficiency of resource-based cities, but the influence was not statistically significant; Government regulation, employment structure and level of science and education had a positive influence on sustainable development efficiency of resource-based cities.