老龄化对房价的影响机制:基于中国的实证研究

随着我国逐渐步入深度老龄化社会,老龄化对房地产市场的影响将日益凸显.本研究系统分析了老龄化影响房地产价格的理论机制,识别与筛选出关键传导渠道,并基于我国31省市数据,采用面板模型及门限面板等计量模型进行验证.实证结果表明:老龄化对房价存在直接的负向影响,且在预期、人口规模、城镇化率、人均可支配收入促进房价增长的机制中存在负向调节作用;同时,经济发展及城镇化会在一定程度上缓解老龄化对房价的负向影响.老龄化对房价的负向影响是否胜过其他因素对房价的正向影响取决于我国目前所处的经济发展水平及城镇化水平.

The impact of population ageing on real estate price: An empirical study in China

As China gradually stepping into the ageing society, the impact of population ageing on the real estate market has become increasingly prominent. This paper constructed a theoretical mechanism of the impact of population ageing on the real estate price and accordingly identify key channels through which ageing affects real estate price. Then using the panel models and the threshold panel models, an empirical study is made to verify the proposed hypothesis based on the 31 provinces and cities' data in China. The empirical results show that population ageing has a negative impact on real estate price. Meanwhile population ageing has negative moderating effects in the positive impact of housing expectation, population increase, urbanization and per capita disposable income on the real estate price. Furthermore, the economic development and urbanization will weaken the negative impact of population ageing on real estate price. Whether the negative impact of population ageing outperforms the positive effects of other factors depends on the level of economic development and urbanization, as well as how much the Chinese households care about houses.