神朔铁路钢轨折断风险评估模型研究

钢轨折断是一类严重的线路故障,研究钢轨折断风险评估对保障线路安全具有重要作用。基于模糊推理方法构建钢轨折断风险评估模型,该模型利用设备台账数据、钢轨状态检测数据和维修数据等相关的生产数据,识别钢轨折断致灾因子,量化评定致灾因子状态,建立模糊推理规则库,利用Mamdani模糊推理算法计算钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性。最后采用神朔铁路神木北至黄羊城区间2013~2015年共3年的实际生产数据对模型的有效性进行验证,结果表明:所建模型可以较好地评估神朔铁路钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性,对钢轨折断风险管理具有重要指导意义。

Research on the Risk Assessment Model of Rail fracture of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway

Rail fracture is a serious line fault. The research on risk assessment of rail fracture plays an important role in ensuring the safety of railway. This paper constructs a risk assessment model of rail fracture based on fuzzy inference method. The model uses the equipment ledger data, rail condition inspection and maintenance data to identify hazard factors of rail fracture, evaluate quantitatively the state of hazard factors and establish fuzzy inference rule base, and then employs Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm to calculate the possibility of rail fracture. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by the actual production data of three years from 2013 to 2015 of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway. The results show that the model is effective in evaluating the possibility of broken rails, and is of great significance to the risk management of rail fracture of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway.